How climate change affects road infrastructure and how to build resilience

Michael Gloor

Roads are essential to the function of society and economies. From major highways to local streets, they connect people and are a fundamental part of supply chains, transporting a variety of goods.

However, climate change and more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including heatwaves and flooding, are putting growing pressure on roadways, with significant damage observed worldwide.

If climate warming progresses, the impacts on road infrastructure are expected to worsen, compromising safety and increasing operational and maintenance costs. In light of these challenges, there is an urgent need to adapt and increase the resilience of our roadways.

Roads on the frontline

Roads have traditionally been designed assuming a stable climate. This means that road design and construction materials do not account for the increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change, such as heatwaves, flooding and rising sea levels, all of which have significant impacts on road infrastructure.

Heatwaves and rising temperatures cause cracks in roads and soften and deform asphalt, leading to rutting. For example, asphalt roads softened in France and Germany during the European heatwave in June 2026, disrupting transport across Europe.

On the other hand, heavy rainfall, flooding and sea-level rise increase moisture content in the soil layers beneath the asphalt, affecting the structural capacity of roads and reducing their lifespan. Erosion from extreme precipitation events can also wash out entire sections of roads, as observed during the 2022 Pakistan floods.

Understanding the broader impact of climate change on infrastructure

Roads are far from being the only assets that have to face rising temperatures. Climate change affects infrastructure across transport systems, energy facilities, water infrastructure, and buildings. All these infrastructures are increasingly challenged by the physical conditions associated with changing weather patterns. Climate change infrastructure systems were largely engineered for historical climate conditions, which is precisely why they are now struggling to cope with new extremes. challenges.

How climate change affects infrastructure varies by asset type and region, but the underlying mechanism is consistent: assets experience conditions outside their original design parameters, accelerating wear and shortening service life. Namely, when assets face climate conditions that go beyond what was considered during design, they are damaged faster and need to be replaced sooner than initially expected. Sometimes the consequence of climate-induced stress is infrastructure failure where the asset loses its ability to perform the required functions.

With this general overview in mind, the effect of climate change on road infrastructure becomes more noticeable, as roads are everywhere, always under weather influence, and necessary for economic activities.

The rising costs of climate change infrastructure damage

More frequent and intense extreme weather events affect the integrity of roadways, leading to more frequent repairs and substantial maintenance costs. For example, in the United States, reconstructing a single lane of road costs around $US 304,565 per kilometre.

Additionally, roadways are often fully or partially closed after extreme events, resulting in delays and significant economic losses.

If climate change continues to progress, these costs could increase rapidly. For example, under a 4°C global warming level, extreme heat in Europe and the UK could cause operational and maintenance costs to rise by €4.8 billion – a 6.9% increase compared to current values.

Resilient roadways for the future

This highlights the urgent need to build more resilient roadways and reduce the impacts of climate change on road infrastructure. While there are only limited examples of road engineering practices that currently account for climate change, various adaptation strategies exist and could be adopted in the future.

These include hardening and protecting the roadways, improving drainage to reduce the impacts of extreme precipitation and flooding, and making roads more resistant to extreme heat. For example, asphalt pavements could be made more resistant to high temperatures by using higher performance grades1, and concrete could be reinforced with steel.

The PIARC International Climate Change Adaptation Framework 2023 is a helpful tool guiding road authorities in enhancing the resilience of their networks through four stages: Preparation, Assessment pathways, Adaptation measures and Incorporating findings.

Why infrastructure climate risk modeling matters

Adjusting infrastructure to a shifting climate starts with a solid grasp of exposure. Modeling infrastructure climate risk allows owners and managers to determine how certain assets, situated in specific locations, will react to climate warming projections. Instead of basing assumptions on past weather trends, the technique applies predicted climate information to vulnerability functions of individual assets to determine where damage will be sustained due to climate change and the extent of that damage.

Modeling of this kind is particularly useful for long-lasting assets like roads because current infrastructure investments have to be able to handle future weather conditions. Furthermore, it can help allocate limited infrastructure maintenance resources by pinpointing the most vulnerable parts of the network instead of upgrading all of it equally.

How Correntics helps organizations manage climate change infrastructure risk

Correntics’ Climate Risk Analytics Platform helps organizations understand the impact of climate change on infrastructure, operations, and supply chains.

By modeling asset locations across various warming scenarios (1.5°C, 2°C, 4°C) or IPCC scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP)), the platform can identify which parts of infrastructure might be affected by climate change-induced risks (high temperatures, heavy precipitation, etc.) and estimate potential financial losses. Vulnerability functions can be adjusted for specific asset classes, pavement quality, and regions.

Additionally, the platform provides continuous real-time weather observations and disaster alerts to help monitor changes and enable timely adjustments in planning maintenance work and investments.

Correntics Climate Risk Analytics Platform complies with disclosure requirements under CSRD and IFRS S2, making it useful for finance and sustainability professionals who must report on infrastructure climate risks.

Climate change infrastructure damage in Italy

In a recent case study, the platform was used to assess infrastructure damage due to climate change in Italy.

Specifically, the response of seven highways to temperature changes under different climate scenarios was analyzed using customized vulnerability functions. These enabled the mapping of the hazard (increase in extreme temperatures) in terms of risk (operating and maintenance costs). The increase in operation and maintenance costs was then estimated.

Key findings of the case study include:

Under a warming climate, the mean annual road damage increases for all SSPs (see Figure 1).
Beyond 2050, operating and maintenance costs are 1.5 times higher in a high-emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5) than in a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6).
Annual damage increases over time for all Performance Grades, but lower-grade asphalt consistently experiences higher levels of damage.
Some road types experience a faster reduction in lifetime than others and require a shorter maintenance cycle.

The results show that road type, pavement grade, and local conditions need to be taken into account when assessing the impact of climate change on road infrastructure.

Figure 1: Estimate for annual heat-induced impacts for highway infrastructure for a Performance Grade of 58 (left panel) and 52 (right panel). The general trend is an increase in the mean annual damage for all SSP pathways. Newly constructed streets are assumed for the calculation of the annual mean (non-cumulative) damage. A Performance Grade of 58 implies that if the pavement temperatures frequently exceed 58°C, the road will degrade at a faster rate than normal and will require a higher level of maintenance. A road with such a grade will be operating at pavement temperatures below 58°C in 98% of the time.

Adaptation strategies for long-term resilience

Creating resilient networks demands proactive thinking rather than reactive actions taken only in response to damage. The impact of climate change on infrastructure resilience and adaptation strategies needs to be considered together, since resilience is only achieved when adaptation measures are planned around a clear understanding of future risk. In turn, this involves combining engineering solutions, such as the use of heat-resistant materials and improved drainage systems, with governance measures, like updating standards and capital planning for a climate-changed world.

Organizations that combine climate risk assessment in infrastructure with actual adaptation measures will be able to minimize the number and intensity of climate-infrastructure damages in the future.

Looking ahead

Climate change is already challenging the resilience of road infrastructure worldwide, with damage and costs expected to rise in the future. Climate change infrastructure resilience will be achieved by adopting various adaptation measures and integrating future climate projections into design, planning and investment decisions. Combining advanced modeling with climate risk analytics will help better assess risk, understand vulnerabilities and guide adaptation decisions to keep our road networks safe, reliable and functional in a changing climate.